News from NPA Data Services, Inc. February 2004
All our service databases have been updated as of the end of 2003. Here are some of the highlights from our Winter 2003 updates:
Economic, Demographic and Household Databases of the Regional Economic Projections SeriesTM
· Economic recovery will continue into 2003. Strong "new economy" productivity growth trend of 1995-2002 is projected to continue for six more years, generating accelerated growth in earnings and incomes. Average U.S. household income is projected to grow from $ 75,661 of constant 1996 dollars in 2002 to $ 89,373 in 2010 and $ 106,025 in 2030.
· Census revised upwards its earlier population figures for 1990-1999 to bring them in line with the Census 2000 population result, by adjusting them for a massive undercount of immigration in the 1990s (a cumulative 6-7 million U.S. residents). Census is reporting continued high immigration growth in 2001-2002, years of recession and increased national security controls. We project strong population growth for the future, from 288 millions in 2002 to 307 millions in 2010, and 382 millions in 2030, augmented by rising immigration.
· Regionally, we project strongest 2002-2030 population growth for the West and the South of the Nation. The most rapid population growth rates are projected for the states of Nevada and Arizona (2.1 percent per year each). The largest absolute population increases over this period are projected for California, Texas and Florida at 14.6, 11.4, and 10.6 million, respectively.
· Largest increases in employment and population among the Metropolitan Areas are projected for Atlanta, Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and Washington. Generally, more rapid growth is projected for metropolitan areas which have technology intensive industry base and/or major universities or which are state capitals.
· At the county level, the projection patterns show comparatively more rapid growth of counties in the outer suburban rings of large metropolitan areas, recreational and retirement counties, and counties located along the major transportation routes connecting large metropolitan centers.
Key Indicators of County Growth, 1970-2030
· The 2003 Edition includes twelve basic economic and demographic indicators for all 3098 U.S. counties and county equivalents, for selected dates 1970-2030. Published in two versions: as a 600 page reference book and as a CD data source for computer analysis.
Construction/Economic Projections Service
· This service follows the shifting trends in the outlook for residential construction in 314 U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 2003-2010 . It also highlights the apparent over and under supply of new residential housing as estimated from recent changes in employment and households.
The Quarterly Building Permits Service
· This service, which is reported four times a year, tracks quarterly trends in single and multi family housing. It covers all U.S. counties reporting building permits, all metropolitan areas and all states, and analyzes them in relation to local economies.
· One recently introduced analytical indicator included in this service is the ratio of housing units authorized by permits to the number of households in the area. Because "households" are defined in U.S. government statistics as "occupied housing units", this ratio approximates the current rate of growth of the housing stock in the area. It is also a leading indicator of local population growth. Following are ten metropolitan areas with the highest permits/household ratios as of nine months of 2002:
| Naples, FL |
7.06% |
| Greeley, CO |
6.60 % |
| Fort Myers, FL |
5.21 % |
| Las Vegas, NV-AZ |
4.83 % |
| Ocala, FL |
4.63 % |
| McAllen, TX |
4.46 % |
| Atlanta, GA |
4.28 % |
| Myrtle Beach, SC |
4.09 % |
| Wilmington, NC |
4.00 % |
| Orlando, FL |
3.92 % |
Some individual counties had even higher implicit growth rates of housing stock than any of the MSAs. For example, the ratio for Loudoun County, VA in the Washington MSA was 8.20 %. All these rates are at the high end. The national ratio for all counties with permits reports was only 1.60 %. Many areas had rates below this average.
Copyright 2004 by NPA
Data Services, Inc.
All rights reserved.
Phone: (703) 979-8400/8401
Fax: (703) 979-8402
E-mail:npadata@npadata.com
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